Feb 182022

It’s been another two weeks of the stock market rollercoaster. At one point I actually reached $6100. I made $100 in unrealized profit! It was a fun 2 hours and by the end of the day I was back under $6000. Today I’m sitting at ~$5,570. Here’s the scoreboard for this weeks check in:

I included the CHANGE column which shows the gain or loss since last update

Surprisingly the index fund lost more than the options plays. I still haven’t made up for that original -22% but it’s getting there.

I only made one trade in the past two weeks. RIOT was nearly at $20 so I decided to roll my $22 call to a later date. I also increased the strike to $24. As a reminder “rolling” means closing one option and opening a new one in a single transaction. I ended up closing the first one for $94 after opening it at $95 for a gain of $1. Unfortunately the commission was $1.63 so I’m calling it a wash. I sold the new, March 18 $24 call for $100:

The new covered call is already up over 50%. Actually I probably should have sold it today. Oh well. I’ll sell on Monday if this holds.

From my own research the markets are struggling with two main issues:

  1. Ukraine – War is not good for the stock market. Well actually it’s uncertainty that’s bad for the market. If Russia officially backs off I’m sure we’ll have a healthy rebound. If Russia invades? My uneducated opinion is that Russia will not invade. But if they do I think we’re in for another dump
  2. Fed Tightening – All the pandemic support is coming to an end. Omicron is wearing down and restrictions are falling all over the place. Interest rates are scheduled to rise this year which will hamper investments and make fixed income like bonds more attractive. Personally I think most of these hikes are already priced in. I’m guessing the day they officially announce a rate hike we’ll see a steep drop with a V shaped recovery in the following days or weeks. They’re planning multiple raises over the next year or two.

I really can’t say where the market is heading now, we seem to get really good days followed by really bad days. It feels like 1 step forward and 3 steps back. I’ll have a +5% day followed by three days of -3%. Nothing to do but continue weathering this stormy market.

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